Abstract
We investigate the possibility to apply a method of calculus analytics developed for predicting critical transitions in complex systems to social systems modelled with agent-based methods (ABMs). We introduce this method on the example of an equation-based modelled system and subsequently test it—to our knowledge for the first time—on ABMs. Our experiments show that the method may have wide applicability in the analysis of social systems. The method can help to approximate abrupt and thus unpredictable regime shifts, even though it may be constrained by stochastics and require a bit more experimentation in selecting suitable variables for making it work in ABMs.
Highlights
Like other complex dynamical systems too, social systems can experience abrupt transitions from one equilibrium state to another [1]
We find that the method provides interesting insights into the behaviour of complex interactions and can help to approximate abrupt and hard to predict regime shifts in social systems
We investigate the prospects of applying a method for predicting critical transitions in complex dynamic systems, which was developed and deployed so far only on equation-based modelling (EBM), to agent-based methods (ABMs)
Summary
Like other complex dynamical systems too, social systems can experience abrupt transitions from one equilibrium state to another [1]. Perturbing systems with sub- or supercritical pitchforkbifurcations for instance does not necessarily yield clear deflections in the recovery curves, Critical Slowing Down can be observed in the wake of a tipping point (see Fig. 6a–d) In these cases, when extremes are out of the considered range, it may be more applicable, instead of considering maxima or minima, to iterate over the differentiated recovery curves with a small running window around a value r ., taking the averages of the windows and using these terms for the linearized projection to the zero line as described above Still they may be seen as indicative of changing dynamics in the onset of a critical transition and may be interpreted as an early warning signal for an imminent regime shift
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