Predicting Recidivism in Probationers With the Youth Level of Service Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

Abstract

Justice systems depend on risk assessment instruments to identify juveniles who have the greatest likelihood to re-offend. This study was an attempt to validate the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory as a predictor of re-offense for young offenders between the ages of 10 and 16. Although 26% of youth in the sample ( n = 328) re-offended, there were significant differences in offense rates among juveniles classified as high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The YLS/CMI also had a high correct classification rate, which was reflected in an AUC of .62. Finally, youth of different risk levels also showed differences in time to re-offense rates. Results indicate further study of the YLS/CMI's validity with girls and minorities is necessary. Furthermore, risk prediction could be improved by inclusion of ecological predictive variables related to delinquency.