Predicting real-time within-vehicle air pollution exposure with mass-balance and machine learning approaches using on-road and air quality data

Abstract

Modelling the air pollutant concentrations within-vehicles is an essential step to estimate our daily exposure to air pollution. This is a challenging issue however, since the processes that affect the exposures within-vehicles change with different driving patterns and ventilation settings. This study introduces an innovative approach that combines mass-balance principles and machine learning techniques, leveraging ambient air quality, on-road and within-vehicle measurements of particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5, PM1), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), aerosol lung surface deposited area (LSDA) and ultrafine particles (UFP) under different ventilation settings to estimate air pollution exposure levels within vehicles. The first model (MB) includes basic physical and chemical processes and follows a mass-balance approach to estimate the within-vehicle concentrations. The second model (ML) applies data driven machine learning algorithms to a training set of observations to predict unseen within-vehicle concentrations. By using a number generator, the whole observational dataset was divided to 80:20 and 80% was used to build and train the ML model, while 20% was used for validation. Both models demonstrated good predictions of observations apart from an underestimation in UFP and LSDA. The ML model showed better predictive power than the MB model and had skill in predicting the unseen within-vehicle exposures. The ML model predictions were as good as the MB model for most of the species and improved for NO2. The ML model demonstrated good index of agreement (IOA >0.69) and Pearson correlation coefficient (r > 0.80) for all the species. The inclusion of air quality data from nearby monitoring stations instead of on-road (sampled while driving), in the ML model showed promising and new capabilities to within-vehicle exposure predictions. In an era where air pollution is a growing concern, understanding and predicting within-vehicle air pollution exposure is of great importance for public health and environmental research. This research not only advances the field of exposure assessment but (at no extra cost) also demonstrates practical implications for real-time exposure mapping and health impact assessment of vehicle occupants with existing infrastructure.