Abstract
AbstractAimModelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon‐specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap.LocationTropical Africa.MethodsWe compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate‐, habitat‐ and human‐related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon‐specific range change under a best‐ and a worst‐case scenario, using ensemble forecasting.ResultsThe predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human‐related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap.Main ConclusionsMassive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision‐making levels both in range countries and abroad.
Highlights
A major conservation challenge is to assess the potential future effects of climate and land-use changes on species distributions, typically through the use of species distribution models (SDMs), and usually under a range of future environmental scenarios.SDMs are widely used to predict and map species’ ecological niches through time and space (Elith & Leathwick, 2009; Guillera-Arroita et al, 2015; Hao, Elith, Guillera‐Arroita, &Lahoz‐Monfort, 2019)
We subsequently identified areas of range loss, gain, and stability
Our models indicate that the future distributions of most gorillas and bonobos will be more heavily influenced by climate-related variables, contrasting with the greater influence of anthropogenic variables in shaping the chimpanzee distribution (Fig. S1.5-6)
Summary
A major conservation challenge is to assess the potential future effects of climate and land-use changes on species distributions, typically through the use of species distribution models (SDMs), and usually under a range of future environmental scenarios.SDMs are widely used to predict and map species’ ecological niches through time and space (Elith & Leathwick, 2009; Guillera-Arroita et al, 2015; Hao, Elith, Guillera‐Arroita, &Lahoz‐Monfort, 2019). A major conservation challenge is to assess the potential future effects of climate and land-use changes on species distributions, typically through the use of species distribution models (SDMs), and usually under a range of future environmental scenarios. Changes in climate and land use are among the main global threats to biodiversity, how the synergistic interactions between these drivers impact species is an important area of research (Oliver & Morecroft, 2014). Newbold et al (2018) assessed the single and combined effects of future climate and land-use change on local vertebrate biodiversity. They found that climate change is likely to be the principal driver of species distribution change in coming decades, equalling or surpassing the potential effects of land-use change by 2070. Because human population growth is already an extinction threat to many species
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