Predicting rainfall-induced landslide potential along a mountain road in Taiwan

Abstract

This paper gives a brief introduction on the background and current status of rainfall-induced landslides along a mountain road (Route T-18) in Taiwan and presents a detailed analysis based on the Gaussian process model for predicting locations and occurrence times of future landslides using post Chi-Chi earthquake historical data. Based on inherent and man-made features of failed and not-failed slopes, locations of possible future landslides owing to rainfall along Route T-18 are predicted. Together with historical rainfall data, a rainfall fragility graph is established. The analysis results show that the Gaussian process model is effective in predicting landslide potentials and probabilities. Comparisons of the Gaussian process analysis and the discriminant function analysis are made, which show that the former outperforms the latter in many respects. The results are valuable for predicting where and when landslides would occur along Route T-18 in future heavy rainfalls.