Predicting potential distribution of oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis in Jiangxi Province, South China based on maximum entropy model

Abstract

Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a very destructive invasive pest of many tropical and subtropical fruits and vegetables. In order to effectively monitor and manage this pest, it is important to predict its potential geographical distribution in Jiangxi Province, south China. Maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to predict distributions of the fly in Jiangxi Province based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental variables. The results suggested that the suitable areas for B. dorsalis infestations were mainly restricted to central and southern Jiangxi Province, with Latitude that ranged from 24 to 28°N. Northeast Jiangxi, northwest Jiangxi and the regions bording upon Yangtse River were predicted as unsuitable for B. dorsalis. The fit for the model as measured by AUC was high, with value of 0.978 for the training data and 0.965 for the test data, indicating the high level of discriminatory power for the Maxent. A jackknife test in Maxent indicated that mean temperature of coldest quarter with highest gain value was the most important environmental variable that restricted the expansion to north Jiangxi Province. Further research into the biology of the species and their ability to overcome barriers is necessary to explain niche differentiation, and to better understand invasion risk.   Key words: Maxent, Bactrocera dorsalis, fruit fly, ecological niche model, potential distribution.