Predicting Postoperative Mortality After Metastatic Intraspinal Neoplasm Excision: Development of a Machine-Learning Approach

Abstract

Mortality following surgical resection of spinal tumors is a devastating outcome. Naïve Bayes machine learning algorithms may be leveraged in surgical planning to predict mortality. In this investigation, we use a Naïve Bayes classification algorithm to predict mortality following spinal tumor excision within 30 days of surgery. Patients who underwent laminectomies between 2006 and 2018 for excisions of intraspinal neoplasms were selected from the National Surgical Quality Initiative Program. Naïve Bayes classifier analysis was conducted in Python. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the classifier's ability to predict mortality within 30 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed in R to identify risk factors for 30-day postoperative mortality. In total, 2094 spine tumor surgery patients were included in the study. The 30-day mortality rate was 5.16%. The classifier yielded an AUC of 0.898, which exceeds the predictive capacity of the National Surgical Quality Initiative Program mortality probability calculator's AUC of 0.722 (P < 0.0001). The multivariable regression indicated that smoking history, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, disseminated cancer, bleeding disorder history, dyspnea, and low albumin levels were strongly associated with 30-day mortality. The Naïve Bayes classifier may be used to predict 30-day mortality for patients undergoing spine tumor excisions, with an increasing degree of accuracy as the model better performs by learning continuously from the input patient data. Patient outcomes can be improved by identifying high-risk populations early using the algorithm and applying that data to inform preoperative decision making, as well as patient selection and education.