Predicting postoperative delirium after hip arthroplasty for elderly patients using machine learning

Abstract

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and severe complication in elderly hip-arthroplasty patients. This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model that determines essential features related to POD and predicts POD for elderly hip-arthroplasty patients. The electronic record data of elderly patients who received hip-arthroplasty surgery between January 2017 and April 2021 were enrolled as the dataset. The Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) was administered to the patients during their perioperative period. The feature section method was employed as a filter to determine leading features. The classical machine learning algorithms were trained in cross-validation processing, and the model with the best performance was built in predicting the POD. Metrics of the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy (ACC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score were calculated to evaluate the predictive performance. 476 Arthroplasty elderly patients with general anesthesia were included in this study, and the final model combined feature selection method mutual information (MI) and linear binary classifier using logistic regression (LR) achieved an encouraging performance (AUC = 0.94, ACC = 0.88, sensitivity = 0.85, specificity = 0.90, F1-score = 0.87) on a balanced test dataset. The model could predict POD with satisfying accuracy and reveal important features of suffering POD such as age, Cystatin C, GFR, CHE, CRP, LDH, monocyte count, history of mental illness or psychotropic drug use and intraoperative blood loss. Proper preoperative interventions for these factors could reduce the incidence of POD among elderly patients.