Predicting Persistent Acute Respiratory Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: The Accuracy of Two Lung Injury Indices.

Abstract

Early and accurate identification of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) at high risk of persistent acute respiratory failure (PARF) is crucial. We sought to determine the accuracy of simplified Lung Injury Prediction Score (sLIPS) and simplified Early Acute Lung Injury (sEALI) for predicting PARF in ward AP patients. Consecutive AP patients in a training cohort from West China Hospital of Sichuan University (n = 912) and a validation cohort from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (n = 1033) were analyzed. PARF was defined as oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen < 300mmHg that lasts for > 48h. The sLIPS was composed by shock (predisposing condition), alcohol abuse, obesity, high respiratory rate, low oxygen saturation, high oxygen requirement, hypoalbuminemia, and acidosis (risk modifiers). The sEALI was calculated from oxygen 2 to 6 L/min, oxygen > 6 L/min, and high respiratory rate. Both indices were calculated on admission. PARF developed in 16% (145/912) and 22% (228/1033) (22%) of the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In these patients, sLIPS and sEALI were significantly increased. sLIPS ≥ 2 predicted PARF in the training (AUROC 0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.89) and validation (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83) cohorts. sLIPS was significantly more accurate than sEALI and current clinical scoring systems in both cohorts (all P < 0.05). Using routinely available clinical data, the sLIPS can accurately predict PARF in ward AP patients and outperforms the sEALI and current existing clinical scoring systems.