Abstract
SUMMARYThe woody shrub Hakea sericea is an aggressive invader of natural vegetation in South Africa. Large‐scale die‐back in H. sericea is attributed to a form of the fungus Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. The progression of symptoms of the disease was monitored over 21 months. Results were used to construct a transition matrix model to predict further progression of the disease. Eighty‐two percent mortality is predicted after 10 years. Pathogen‐induced seed release occurred mainly between October and January. No regeneration was observed beneath or near infected stands of H. sericea. The model will be useful to managers when identifying priority areas for weed control operations.
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