Predicting overall survival and prophylactic cranial irradiation benefit in small-cell lung cancer with CT-based deep learning: A retrospective multicenter study

Abstract

Background and purposeTo develop a computed tomography (CT)-based deep learning model to predict overall survival (OS) among small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients and identify patients who could benefit from prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) based on OS signature risk stratification. Materials and methodsThis study retrospectively included 556 SCLC patients from three medical centers. The training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts comprised 309, 133, and 114 patients, respectively. The OS signature was built using a unified fully connected neural network. A deep learning model was developed based on the OS signature. Clinical and combined models were developed and compared with a deep learning model. Additionally, the benefits of PCI were evaluated after stratification using an OS signature. ResultsWithin the internal and external validation cohorts, the deep learning model (concordance index [C-index] 0.745, 0.733) was far superior to the clinical model (C-index: 0.635, 0.630) in predicting OS, but slightly worse than the combined model (C-index: 0.771, 0.770). Additionally, the deep learning model had excellent calibration, clinical usefulness, and improved accuracy in classifying survival outcomes. Remarkably, patients at high risk had a survival benefit from PCI in both the limited and extensive stages (all P < 0.05), whereas no significant association was observed in patients at low risk. ConclusionsThe CT-based deep learning model exhibited promising performance in predicting the OS of SCLC patients. The OS signature may aid in individualized treatment planning to select patients who may benefit from PCI.