Predicting Outcomes in Emergency General Surgery Patients Using Preoperative Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is commonly used to predict liver-related mortality postoperatively in cirrhotic patients. Multiple studies have demonstrated its value in predicting adverse outcomes for patients without reported liver failure, all focused on outcomes for elective procedures. This study examined MELD scores and 30-day outcomes in adult patients undergoing emergent general surgery procedures. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of the American College of Surgeons NSQIP database from 2014 to 2018. General surgery patients more than 18 years old who underwent an emergent procedure were included. Patients who were missing preoperative laboratory values for sodium, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, and creatinine were excluded. A univariable and multivariable logistic regression with a nonlinear restricted cubic spline of the MELD score was performed. The models were controlled for age, sex, race, diabetes, smoking, COPD, congestive heart failure, and disseminated cancer. All analysis was done using R Version 4.1.2. RESULTS: A total of 123,104 patients were analyzed with 34.8% (n = 42,799) with MELD 10 to 19, 11.2% (n = 13,826) with MELD 20 to 29, and 1.3% (n = 1,575) with MELD 30 to 39. Of these patients, 7.8% (n = 9,640) died, 6.9% (n = 8,539) developed pneumonia, and 14.9% (n = 18,356) had a bleeding event within 30 days. The probability of mortality (chi-square [3df] = 7,170.7, p < 0.001), pneumonia (chi-square [3df] = 1,568.3, p < 0.001), and bleeding (chi-square [3df] = 6,436.5, p < 0.001) significantly correlate with MELD score (Fig. 1). The probability of mortality for a MELD 10 is 4.5%, for a MELD 20 is 15.6%, and for a MELD 30 is 36.0% for the average patient.Figure 1CONCLUSION: Across all variables, postoperative outcomes worsened in a nonlinear manner as MELD increased. MELD scores can be used in preoperative assessment of patients undergoing emergency general surgery.