Abstract
ABSTRACT Most major oil spills in the United States result in some natural resource damages (NRD), which arise from injuries to natural resources and losses of their services. Other things being equal, larger spills lead to larger NRD. However, factors other than the number of gallons spilled can affect the subsequent amount of natural resource damages. These factors may include the type of oil spilled, the geographic location of the spill, the season in which the spill occurred, whether threatened and endangered species were injured, whether recreation closures occurred, whether the spill occurred in saltwater or freshwater, and other characteristics of the spill. This paper presents a statistical model using multiple-regression analysis that explains variations in 86 NRD settlements for oil spills in the United States based on a variety of factors. The results of the statistical analysis identify which of the factors influence NRD settlements and the magnitude of the effect. Then, the results of the statistical model are used to predict a point estimate and 90% confidence interval for the NRD settlement for three hypothetical oil spills. Such predictions could give both Trustees (i.e., government agencies that pursue NRD claims on behalf of the public) and responsible parties a useful damage range, for planning purposes, within days of future oil spills.
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