Predicting mountain ultra‐marathon performance using the critical velocity model

Abstract

PURPOSECritical Velocity (CV) and D′ were evaluated as predictors of mountain ultra marathon finishing times in cool conditions.HYPOTHESISIt was hypothesized that CV and D′ would both predict mountain ultra‐marathon performance.METHODSNine healthy males volunteered to participate in the study. Their average age was 37.9 ± 10.0 y, height 1.79 ± 0.05 m, body mass 76.6 ± 11.2 kg, BMI 23.8 ± 3.0 kg•m−2. The SFU Office of Research Ethics approved the study and each volunteer gave a signed consent prior to participation. Each volunteer completed a 50‐km mountain ultra‐marathon and then each volunteer's CV and D′ was evaluated using a series of maximal‐effort timed 1200, 2400 and 3600 m running trials on the same day with 30 min rest before trials 2 and 3. A Latin square design was employed to determine the orders of the tests. Maximal aerobic capacity was also assessed using indirect calorimetry and a graded treadmill test.RESULTSThe mean CV was 3.5 ± 0.5 m•s−1, D′ was 197.2 ± 83.2 m and mean absolute and relative aerobic powers were 4.8 ± 0.8 L min−1 and 63.5 ± 6.7 mL•kg−1•min−1, respectively. Stepwise multiple linear regression identified CV as the sole significant predictor of the mountain ultra‐marathon performance time (r=−0.88, p<0.05). Correlation analysis of the independent variables with finishing time indicated that aerobic power was significantly and positively correlated with finishing times (r=−0.72, p=0.002).CONCLUSIONThese preliminary results suggest that CV explains both a significant fraction of the variance in mountain marathon finishing time and that CV obtained via running track tests is an appropriate method for predicting these finishing times.Support or Funding InformationSupported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI)