Abstract

The problem of predicting mortality among rural [U.S.] elderly (65 years and older) living independently is examined using 20-year panel data derived from a random multistage cluster sample. Fifteen independent variables including social networks age sex and health status were hypothesized on theoretical and empirical grounds to predict mortality. Face-to-face structured interviews were conducted with the same respondents in 1966 1974 and 1986/87. Logistic regression establishes that a model comprising age sex participation in formal organizations relative and children association and general health status is a powerful predictor of mortality. The authors conclude that the more heterogeneous formal or secondary social networks which may enhance self esteem are most functional for the elderly. (EXCERPT)

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