Predicting Long-Term Trajectories of Connected Vehicles via the Prefix-Projection Technique

Abstract

The vehicle location prediction based on their spatial and temporal information is an important and difficult task in many applications. In the last few years, devices, such as connected vehicles, smart phones, GPS navigation systems, and smart home appliances, have amassed the large stores of geographic data. The task of leveraging this data by employing moving objects database techniques to predict spatio-temporal locations in an accurate and efficient fashion, comprising a complete trajectory remains an actively researched area. Existing methods for frequent sequential pattern mining tend to be limited to predicting short-term partial trajectories, at extremely high computational costs. In order to address these limitations, we designed a prefix-projection-based trajectory prediction algorithm called PrefixTP, which contains three essential phases. First, data collection, connected vehicles equipped with sensors comprise a vehicle grid and generate copious amounts of spatio-temporal data, in order to communicate and share traffic information. Second, model training, examining only the prefix subsequences, and projecting only their corresponding postfix subsequences into projected sets. Finally, trajectory matching, recursively finding postfix sequences meeting the requirement of minimum support count, and outputting the most frequent sequential pattern as the most probable trajectory. Fundamentally, PrefixTP supports three trajectory matching strategies which encompass all possibilities of prediction. Extensive experiments were conducted using real world GPS data sets, and the results show, when comparing predicted complete trajectories against partial short-term trajectories with a guarantee of real-time forecasting, that PrefixTP outperforms first-order, second-order Markov models, and Apriori-based trajectory prediction algorithm.