Predicting liquefaction probability based on shear wave velocity: an update

Abstract

The simplified methods based on the cone penetration test (CPT), standard penetration test (SPT), and shear wave velocity (Vs) test are prevalent in liquefaction potential evaluation. In this study, new case histories with the shear wave velocity measurements and the liquefaction phenomenon observations are compiled from the 22 February 2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand. The new case histories are combined with the existing Vs database for assessing and updating probabilistic models. The widely used logistic regression models, as well as other probabilistic models, are examined in the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs). To this end, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) principle is used to determine the model parameters. Then, the developed generalized linear models are ranked using three model assessment criteria. Based on the assessment criteria adopted, the log–log and logistic models are recommended for both the existing and the combined database. The updated log–log model and logistic model are recommended for shear wave velocity based liquefaction potential evaluation.