Predicting Legislative Output in the First One-Hundred Days, 1897-1995

Abstract

This study applies OLS and Poisson regression analysis to predicting the legislative output of Congress during the first Hundred Days of 1897 to 1995. The celebrated One Hundred Days of 1933 has not encouraged researchers to try to identify the structural, political, and incumbency variables that matter systematically across a range of Congresses. Here the 25 presidential Hundred Days are included along with 25 mid-term “hundred days” for comparative purposes. Four conclusions are reached. First, (1) adverse economic conditions and (2) greater electoral support for congressional candidates of the President's party are generally associated with higher levels of 100-days enactments. Second, there is a marked drop-off in 100-days enactments beginning with the 81st Congress, which we speculate may be attributed to the growth of subcommittees that added another layer to the legislative process. Third, Presidents Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Franklin D. Roosevelt arguably exhibited some independent effects on Hundred Days enactments, whereas two other “skilled” legislative leaders-Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan-did not. Finally, the 1933 Hundred Days were exceptional but not unique because their productivity was linked to the confluence of systemic political variables and crisis conditions and, moreover, because the most important 1933 Hundred Days laws were Depression-specific enactments and not general purpose legislation.