Predicting Juvenile Delinquency

Abstract

A version of the 3 Factor Social Prediction Table was applied to a representative sample of 388 boys selected from six schools in a large urban community in Australia. This was part of a larger study of the prediction of juvenile delinquency. The three factor ratings were obtained from data collected when these boys were in 5th grade (age range 9-12 years). A follow-up was conducted 10 years later to determine which boys had had official police contact for criminal offences. It was found that this version of the Glueck 3 Factor Social Prediction Table applied prospectively and not, as usual, retrospectively, did not predict official juvenile delinquency. It was concluded that for a representative sample, and using objectively based data, measures of social class and ecological area are more likely to be appropriate and efficient as predictors of delinquency, than the three family factors in the Gluecks Social Prediction Table, except perhaps in cases where these have been retrospectively applied.