Abstract
The paper's main objective is to predict bank stock performance one year ahead with a composite efficiency metric from relative contextual financial analysis. We bring together financial ratios, generalized data envelopment analysis and simulated annealing to rank Japanese banks on stock performance predicted from relative efficiency scores. An application of this ranking in a profitable investment strategy by designating long and short portfolios underscores the potential commercial value of the method. The method can also be used to monitor the effectiveness of ratios in forecasting stock performance and it is conducive to selecting predictive ratios when markets are changing rapidly.
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