Predicting Institutional Adjustment and Recidivism in Delinquent Boys

Abstract

In this study an attempt is made to determine which variables best predict the subsequent institutional adjustment of recently committed delinquent boys and, secondly, which variables best differentiate potential recidivists from nonrecidivists on the basis of data available and easily accessible to staff personnel at the time of the boys' first commitment. A number of investigators, including Ohlin and Reckless, have concluded that the use of actuarial or other objectively validated predictive indices provides an important basis for making decisions regarding parole success.1 Some investigators, such as Hakeem, have concluded that predictions made upon the basis of actuarial data are more accurate than those made by professional personnel, such as probation agents.2 A number of potential predictor variables which seemed promising were thus analyzed in terms of their relationships with the criterion variables of institutional adjustment and recidivism. The specific variables eventually included within the formal design of the study included the following: age; home environment; seriousness of offenses; personality prognosis; length of stay in the institution; institutional adjustment; and recidivism. We first hypothesized that the older a boy is at the time he is first committed to the institution, (a) the better his adjustment within the institution, and (b) the lower the probability of recidivism. This hypothesis is based in part upon a study by Glueck in which younger offenders were found to