Predicting Infestation Levels of the Nantucket Pine Tip Moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Using Pheromone Traps

Abstract

There is considerable interest in using pheromone trap catches of the Nantucket pine tip moth, Rhyacionia frustrana (Comstock), to estimate or predict population density and damage. At six sites in the Georgia Piedmont, adult tip moths were monitored through one or more years using pheromone traps while population density and damage for each tip moth generation were determined. During most years, trap catch was higher during the first adult generation compared with subsequent generations regardless of population density. Within each generation, trap catch was moderately to highly correlated with associated population density or damage levels. Hyperbolic regression models best described these relationships and suggested trap saturation when populations are high. Trap catch during the first adult generation was highly predictive of population density or damage during the subsequent generation. Trap catch during the second adult generation was fair at predicting subsequent density or damage. The models presented herein should be used with caution because they are likely to be region-specific. Validation of these relationships is necessary before widespread application of these models is warranted.