Predicting Individual Crime Rates

Abstract

There are great individual differences between offenders in their crime rates. The chronic offenders who commit the most crimes tend to commit them at the highest rates. High individual crime rates are predicted by an early age of onset of offending, a serious first offense, and a high past crime rate. Longitudinal surveys show that high individual rates are predicted by early antisocial behavior, convicted parents and siblings, low family income, and school failure. Cross-sectional surveys indicate that they are also predicted by a poor employment record and drug use. The prediction of individual crime rates should be investigated in prospective longitudinal surveys, and predictor and criterion variables should be selected on theoretical grounds rather than on availability in records. A standard index of predictive efficiency is needed in studies of individual crime rates, and this should be measured in validation samples. Acceptance or rejection of a penal policy based on predictions of high-rate offending depends on the choice of a utilitarian or just deserts approach to criminal justice decision making and on a comparison of social costs and social benefits. More research is warranted, rather than the adoption of a new penal policy.