Predicting in-season maize (Zea mays L.) yield potential using crop sensors and climatological data

Abstract

The environment randomly influences nitrogen (N) response, demand, and optimum N rates. Field experiments were conducted at Lake Carl Blackwell (LCB) and Efaw Agronomy Research Station (Efaw) from 2015 to 2018 in Oklahoma, USA. Fourteen site years of data were used from two different trials, namely Regional Corn (Regional) and Optimum N rate (Optimum N). Three algorithms developed by Oklahoma State University (OSU) to predict yield potential were tested on both trials. Furthermore, three new models for predicting potential yield using optical crop sensors and climatological data were developed for maize in rain-fed conditions. The models were trained/built using Regional and were then validated/tested on the Optimum N trial. Out of three models, one model was developed using all of the Regional trial (combined model), and the other two were prepared from each location LCB and Efaw model. Of the three current algorithms; one worked best at predicting final grain yield at LCB location only. The coefficient of determination R2 = 0.15 and 0.16 between actual grain yield and predicted grain yield was observed for Regional and Optimum N rate trials, respectively. The results further indicated that the new models were better at predicting final grain yield except for Efaw model (R2 = 0.04) when tested on optimum N trial. Grain yield prediction for the combined model had an R2 = 0.31. The best yield prediction was obtained at LCB with an R2 = 0.52. Including climatological data significantly improved the ability to predict final grain yield along with using mid-season sensor data.