Predicting impressions of climate change on the distribution of Crocodile newt (Tylototriton verrucosus), a rare Amphibian in the Darjeeling Himalayan sub-region, India.

Abstract

In view of a proper action plan on conservation and management of a species, particularly the rare ones with special ecological interest, comprehensive knowledge on its geographic distributions is a must. Tylototriton verrucosus is one such species with special ecological importance, being the lone representative Urodel in India. Information on its distribution is there but scarce. In West Bengal, India, the distribution of Tylototriton verrucosus is restricted in the northern section. The preliminary goal of this work is to (i) recognize and predict the present and future distribution range of Tylototriton verrucosus on the basis of species incidence data and 19 environmental variables, (ii) define the most significant climatic variables regulating the distribution of the species in the Darjeeling Himalayan sub-region. We accomplished our goal utilizing maximum entropy algorithm, species occurrence data of Tylototriton verrucosus and environmental predictor variables. With a notable AUC value 0.859, and a standard deviation of (± 0.114), that's better than 0.5 of the null version; the MaxEnt model turned into a good one. The potential present optimal distribution area covers nearly 26.98 Km² areas. Our findings depicted that Annual Mean Temperature (46.6%), Isothermality (29.5%) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (11.6%) promises to be the key environmental variables for predicting current and future potential distribution. Our results suggest (i) an increase in optimal suitable area in both 2050 and 2070 for the RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5, respectively and (ii) Annual mean temperature regulates the overall distribution of the newt. Our results may be carried out in diverse ways together with the identity of extra territories in which newts can also additionally already exist, however has now no longer but been detected; the popularity of localities in which it's far possibly to unfold to; the concern choice place for creation and refinement and the preservation and protection of such uncommon species.