Predicting impact of climate change on habitat suitability of guava fruit fly, Bactrocera correcta (Bezzi) using MaxEnt modeling in India

Jaipal S Choudhary Jaipal S Choudhary,Madhumita Kumari Madhumita Kumari,Mahesh K Dhakar Mahesh K Dhakar,Santosh S Mali Santosh S Mali,Arun K Singh Arun K Singh,Bikash Das Bikash Das

doi:10.54386/jam.v21i1.199

Jaipal S Choudhary Jaipal S Choudhary, Madhumita Kumari Madhumita Kumari + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v21i1.199

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Abstract

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to predict impact of climate change on habitat suitability of guava fruit fly, Bactrocera correcta in India. It is a polyphagus pest on a wide variety of fruit crops. Future prediction of potential habitat of B.correcta was done for the year 2050 and 2070 with RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model preformed better than random with an average test AUC value of 0.75 of 100 replicate tests run. Under the present and future climatic conditions, the model predicted high habitat suitable category for B. correcta in the areas of south-western coastal (Kerala, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat) part of India by 2050 and 2070. Presently absolute unsuitable areas of Indian sub-continent are projected to be slightly suitable for B. correcta by 2070 due to increase in temperature coupled with decrease in cold stress. The predictive modeling approach presented here provides an outline for future risk of B.correcta in India under climate change scenarios, which can be used for its better management strategies.

Highlights

It is universally accepted fact that climate change is a significant driver for changing insect pests status as it may affect insect species distribution, abundance, habitat suitability, rate of invasion and increase outbreak frequencies (Berzitis et al, 2014; Choudhary et al, 2017)
Impact of climate change on habitat suitability of guava fruit fly value of each top environmental variable was obtained from response curves (Fig. 2)
Different bioclimatic variables and their respective response curve showed that the expected occurrence of B. correcta was positively correlated with annual precipitation (Bio3) (Fig. 2) where probabilityof its presence increases with increase in annual precipitation

Summary

Introduction

It is universally accepted fact that climate change is a significant driver for changing insect pests status as it may affect insect species distribution, abundance, habitat suitability, rate of invasion and increase outbreak frequencies (Berzitis et al, 2014; Choudhary et al, 2017). Bactrocera species viz., B. dorsalis (Hendel), B. zonata (Saunders) and B. correcta (Bezzi) are considered to cause maximum damage in fruit crops These three species form dorsalis-zonatacorrecta complex, which is one of the vital fruit fly pest complexes in India (Kapoor, 2002). As other fruit flies species, distribution and abundance of B. correcta are highly influenced by climatic factors (temperature, moisture, humidity and their seasonal variation), especiallythe effect of temperature, which play very important role in development, reproduction and survival (Babu and Viraktamath, 2003) Since, this species have a direct impact on Indian economy, and the risk of this species being established information regarding suitable habitat and the influence of climatic factors on population build up is necessary for its effective management

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