Abstract
BackgroundUp to one in three of older patients who are hospitalised develop functional decline, which is associated with sustained disability, institutionalisation and death. This study developed and validated a clinical prediction model that identifies patients who are at risk for functional decline during hospitalisation. The predictive value of the model was compared against three models that were developed for patients admitted to a general medical ward.MethodsA prospective cohort study was performed on two cardiac care units between September 2016 and June 2017. Patients aged 75 years or older were recruited on admission if they were admitted for non-surgical treatment of an acute cardiovascular disease. Hospitalisation-associated functional decline was defined as any decrease on the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living between hospital admission and discharge. Predictors were selected based on a review of the literature and a prediction score chart was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model.ResultsA total of 189 patients were recruited and 33% developed functional decline during hospitalisation. A score chart was developed with five predictors that were measured on hospital admission: mobility impairment = 9 points, cognitive impairment = 7 points, loss of appetite = 6 points, depressive symptoms = 5 points, use of physical restraints or having an indwelling urinary catheter = 5 points. The score chart of the developed model demonstrated good calibration and discriminated adequately (C-index = 0.75, 95% CI (0.68–0.83) and better between patients with and without functional decline (chi2 = 12.8, p = 0.005) than the three previously developed models (range of C-index = 0.65–0.68).ConclusionFunctional decline is a prevalent complication and can be adequately predicted on hospital admission. A score chart can be used in clinical practice to identify patients who could benefit from preventive interventions. Independent external validation is needed.
Highlights
Up to one out of three older patients who are admitted to the hospital experience a new disability in their basic activities of daily living [1]
A score chart can be used in clinical practice to identify patients who could benefit from preventive interventions
Half of the patients had a mobility impairment and 40% reported a loss of appetite before hospital admission, one in three patients had a cognitive impairment and one in four patients reported depressive symptoms or was restrained
Summary
Up to one out of three older patients who are admitted to the hospital experience a new disability in their basic activities of daily living [1]. This hospitalisation-associated functional decline in bathing, dressing, walking, toileting, continence or eating is associated with prolonged hospitalisation, hospital readmission, nursing home admissions and decreased survival [1,2,3]. Older patients admitted for acute cardiovascular disease are vulnerable for functional decline because up to 60% of this group suffers from one or more geriatric syndromes on hospital admission [3]. The predictive value of the model was compared against three models that were developed for patients admitted to a general medical ward
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