Predicting High-Grade Esophagus Toxicity After Treating Central Lung Tumors With Stereotactic Radiation Therapy Using a Normal Tissue Complication Probability Model

Abstract

The treatment of central lung tumors with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is challenged by the risk of excessive esophageal toxicity. To improve clinical decision making, we aimed to derive normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models in a patient cohort with central lung tumors treated with SBRT and to evaluate the currently used esophagus dose constraints. Patients with a central lung tumor who received SBRT (8 fractions of 7.5 Gy or 12 fractions of 5 Gy) were included. Doses were recalculated to an equivalent dose of 2 Gy with an α/β-ratio of 10 Gy for acute and 3 Gy for late toxicity (the cut-off was 3 months). The esophagus was manually delineated. NTCP modeling based on logistic regression was used to relate dose-volume histogram parameters (Dmax, D1cc, D2cc, D5cc) to acute and late toxicity. Parameters with a P < .05 were included in the model. Based on the NTCP models, we determined the probability of toxicity for the currently used dose constraints: D1cc ≤40 Gy for 8 fractions and D1cc ≤48 Gy for 12 fractions. For this study, 188 patients with 203 tumors were eligible. Esophagus toxicity occurred in 33 patients (18%). Late high-grade toxicity consisted of 2 possible treatment-related deaths (grade 5) and 2 patients with grade 3 toxicity. Acute toxicity consisted of only grade 1 (n = 19) and grade 2 toxicity (n = 10). All investigated dose-volume histogram parameters were significantly correlated to acute and late toxicity. The probability of late high-grade toxicity is 1.1% for 8 fractions and 1.4% for 12 fractions when applying the current dose constraints. High-grade esophageal toxicity occurred in 2.1% of the patients, including 2 possible treatment-related deaths. The currently used dose constraints correspond to a low risk of high-grade toxicity.