Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma early recurrence after ablation based on magnetic resonance imaging radiomics nomogram

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate a model for predicting the early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after ablation. A total of 181 patients with HCC after ablation (train group was 119 cases; validation group was 62 cases) were enrolled. The cases of early recurrence in the set of train and validation were 63 and 31, respectively. Radiomics features were extracted from the enhanced magnetic resonance imaging scanning, including pre-contrast injection, arterial phase, late arterial phase, portal venous phase, and delayed phase. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator cox proportional hazards regression after univariate and multivariate analysis was used to screen radiomics features and build integrated models. The nomograms predicting recurrence and survival of patients of HCC after ablation were established based on the clinical, imaging, and radiomics features. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve and C-index for the train and validation group was used to evaluate model efficacy. Four radiomics features were selected out of 34 texture features to formulate the rad-score. Multivariate analyses suggested that the rad-score, number of lesions, integrity of the capsule, pathological type, and alpha-fetoprotein were independent influencing factors. The AUC of predicting early recurrence at 1, 2, and 3 years in the train group was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72-0.88), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.63-0.82), and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.61-0.83), respectively. The AUC of predicting early recurrence at 1, 2, and 3 years in the validation group was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.58-0.84), 0.61 (95% CI: 0.45-0.78) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.40-0.87). The model for early recurrence of HCC after ablation based on the clinical, imaging, and radiomics features presented good predictive performance. This may facilitate the early treatment of patients.