Predicting Hemorrhage Progression in Deep Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Hemorrhage progression in deep intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) involves not only the growth of parenchymal hematoma but also an increase in intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH). The search for methods that predict both the increased risk of parenchymal hematoma and IVH growth is warranted. We conducted a retrospective cohort study at multiple centers. Participants with deep ICH were enrolled from January 2018 to December 2021. Prediction models based on logistic regression analysis included clinical as well as routine radiographic and radiomics variables, separately or in combination. The performance of each model was evaluated using discrimination measures (e.g., area under the curve [AUC]). Evaluation of clinical utility was performed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Overall, 647 individuals across 4 stroke centers were included. A total of 429 (66%) patients from 3 centers were assigned to the primary cohort and 218 (34%) from another center were placed in the validation cohort. Multivariate analysis showed that the Glasgow Coma Scale score, baseline ICH volume, IVH, blend sign, and radiomics score were associated with hemorrhage progression in the primary cohort. The clinical-radiomics model (AUC= 0.852 and 0.835) improved the prediction performance of hemorrhage progression compared to the Noncontrast computed tomography signs model (AUC= 0.666 and 0.618) in both the primary and validation cohorts, with similar results in the decision curve analysis curves. The clinical-radiomics model outperformed the routine Noncontrast computed tomography signs model in predicting the progression of deep ICH. The clinical benefit of screening patients using this model may assist in risk stratification.