Predicting Height to Crown Base of Larix olgensis in Northeast China Using UAV-LiDAR Data and Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models

Abstract

As a core content of forest management, the height to crown base (HCB) model can provide a theoretical basis for the study of forest growth and yield. In this study, 8364 trees of Larix olgensis within 118 sample plots from 11 sites were measured to establish a two-level nonlinear mixed effect (NLME) HCB model. All predictors were derived from an unmanned aerial vehicle light detection and ranging (UAV-LiDAR) laser scanning system, which is reliable for extensive forest measurement. The effects of the different individual trees, stand factors, and their combinations on the HCB were analyzed, and the leave-one-site-out cross-validation was utilized for model validation. The results showed that the NLME model significantly improved the prediction accuracy compared to the base model, with a mean absolute error and relative mean absolute error of 0.89% and 9.71%, respectively. In addition, both site-level and plot-level sampling strategies were simulated for NLME model calibration. According to different prediction scale and accuracy requirements, selecting 15 trees randomly per site or selecting the three largest trees and three medium-size trees per plot was considered the most favorable option, especially when both investigations cost and the model’s accuracy are primarily considered. The newly established HCB model will provide valuable tools to effectively utilize the UAV-LiDAR data for facilitating decision making in larch plantations management.