Predicting heat flow in the Iranian plateau and surrounding areas based on machine learning approach

Abstract

While Surface Heat Flow (HF) is an important constraint unveiling the Earth interior's thermal structure, estimates over the Iranian plateau are sparse. In the presence of sparse estimates, machine learning provides a statistical-based prediction of HF based on a supervised predictor trained in the far-field regions. Here, we imply the machine learning technique of Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT) which has been proved to be efficient for predicting HF projecting complexities and nonlinearities of input features into predicted HF. Our results provide a robust map of HF with resolution of one degree and uncertainty of up to ±6 mW/m2 over Iran and surrounding regions. The predicted HF has an average value and minimum standard deviation of 59 and 10 mW/m2, respectively. The quality of the algorithm performance is 16%, indicated by normalized Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), and linear correlation of predicted HF with validation set is 97%. Total number of trees considerably prevents overfitting which is believed to be solely controllable by shrinkage factor, maximum tree depth and cross-validation scheme. The three most important features, having the highest influence on the output HF, are thermal Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB), distance to volcanoes and distance to trenches. The extreme importance of LAB in HF prediction of Iran indicates that the lithospheric thermal structure is significantly controlled by lithospheric thickness in the Iranian plateau. Selection of petrologically and seismologically consistent LAB guarantees the precision of the predicted HF. Our results imply that high HF in central Iran is in agreement with extensive magmatism since the Paleozoic. Additionally, the high HF in Zagros keel (originally Proterozoic as the Zagros keel appears to be the Arabian plate front) indicates the tectonically active system of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone, high likely, in the form of lithospheric mantle deformation.