Abstract
Key messageWe developed a climatic response function using 20-year tree height observed from 45Ginkgo bilobaplantations in China and used it to predict the growth and habitat responses to anticipated climate change. We projected northward and upward shifts in the species habitat and productive areas, but a dramatic contraction of the species distribution is unlikely to occur at least during the present century.ContextGinkgo biloba is the only living species in the division Ginkgophyta. The species exists in small natural populations in southeastern China but is cultivated across China and the world. The species’ future under climate change is of concern.AimsThis study was initiated to model the species’ growth response to climate change and to predict its range of suitable habitat under future climates.MethodsUsing height data from 45 20 years old plantations growing under a wide range of climatic conditions across China, we developed univariate and bivariate climatic response functions to identify the climate requirements of the species.ResultsAccording to the amount of variance explained (> 70%) and the high level of agreement (> 99%) with independent species occurrence coordinates, the developed climate response function was highly accurate and credible. Projections for future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario indicated that the areas of potential suitable habitat would increase (25–67 million hectares). It would also be associated with northward (0.21–0.62° in latitude) and elevational (24–75 m) shifts.ConclusionGlobal climate change is projected to increase the area of potential suitable habitats for Ginkgo and shift its spatial distributions northward and upward.
Highlights
Ginkgo biloba L., commonly known as ginkgo or gingko, is the only living species of the division Ginkgophyta (Leistner and Drewke 2010)
Using each of the 14 climate variables to build a univariate climate response function for growth trait (20-year-old tree height), we identified the top 10 important climate variables for growth based on their contribution to the model (Table 2)
The model built with mean annual temperature (MAT) was the strongest and explained 62.5% of height total variation of trees growing under different climatic conditions
Summary
Ginkgo biloba L., commonly known as ginkgo or gingko, is the only living species of the division Ginkgophyta (Leistner and Drewke 2010). The origin of ginkgo can be traced back to approximately 270 million YBP and is believed to have spread worldwide (Hsieh 1992). Its range has been gradually reduced to small areas in southeastern China during the Pleistocene (Gong et al 2008; Tang et al 2012). The majority of ginkgo trees exhibit multiple secondary trunks and show a strong tendency to asexual reproduction. Ginkgo’s morphology is highly conservative and this species exhibits a remarkable genetic stability (Bainian et al 2003; Major 1967; Royer et al 2003; Tredici et al 2010). Due to its high economic, medicinal, ecological, ornamental, and scientific values, the species has been the subject of
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