Predicting Green Water Footprint of Sugarcane Crop Using Multi-Source Data-Based and Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms in White Nile State, Sudan

Abstract

Water scarcity and climate change present substantial obstacles for Sudan, resulting in extensive migration. This study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of machine learning models in forecasting the green water footprint (GWFP) of sugarcane in the context of climate change. By analyzing various input variables such as climatic conditions, agricultural data, and remote sensing metrics, the research investigates their effects on the sugarcane cultivation period from 2001 to 2020. A total of seven models, including random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and support vector regressor (SVR), in addition to hybrid combinations like RF-XGB, RF-SVR, XGB-SVR, and RF-XGB-SVR, were applied across five scenarios (Sc) which includes different combinations of variables used in the study. The most significant mean bias error (MBE) was recorded in RF with Sc3 (remote sensing parameters), at 5.14 m3 ton−1, followed closely by RF-SVR at 5.05 m3 ton−1, while the minimum MBE was 0.03 m3 ton−1 in RF-SVR with Sc1 (all parameters). SVR exhibited the highest R2 values throughout all scenarios. Notably, the R2 values for dual hybrid models surpassed those of triple hybrid models. The highest Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value of 0.98 was noted in Sc2 (climatic parameters) and XGB-SVR, whereas the lowest NSE of 0.09 was linked to SVR in Sc3. The root mean square error (RMSE) varied across different ML models and scenarios, with Sc3 displaying the weakest performance regarding remote sensing parameters (EVI, NDVI, SAVI, and NDWI). Effective precipitation exerted the most considerable influence on GWFP, contributing 81.67%, followed by relative humidity (RH) at 7.5% and Tmax at 5.24%. The study concludes that individual models were as proficient as, or occasionally surpassed, double and triple hybrid models in predicting GWFP for sugarcane. Moreover, remote sensing indices demonstrated minimal positive influence on GWFP prediction, with Sc3 producing the lowest statistical outcomes across all models. Consequently, the study advocates for the use of hybrid models to mitigate the error term in the prediction of sugarcane GWFP.