Predicting Future Suitability of Ski Resorts in China by MaxEnt Model

Abstract

Abstract: Investigating the scientific site for ski resorts has significant implications for the sustainable development of ski resorts and regional economic development. This paper aims to analyze the sustainable distribution of ski resorts toward achieving the sustainable development of ski resorts. To achieve this, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model optimized with parameter adjustments was utilized to simulate the suitability distribution and to explore the affecting factors of ski resorts based on distribution sample points of ski resorts and the natural and socio-economic factors influencing ski resorts selection. Additionally, the ski industry is extremely sensitive to climate change. Hence, we predict the suitability distribution of ski resorts under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for the years 2040 and 2060. The results indicate that the highly suitable areas for ski resorts in China are mainly distributed in low-altitude regions such as the North China Plain, the Loess Plateau, and the Northeast Plain in northern China. Population density, average temperature in January, altitude, and total annual snowfall days are the main factors affecting the suitability distribution of ski resorts. Between 2030 and 2050, the suitable areas for ski resorts in China will gradually decrease. The warming climate during the snow season leads to a shift in the suitability of ski resorts towards higher latitudes and altitudes. The unsuitable areas in the south are gradually expanding northward. Based on these findings, this study suggests that the future development of ski resorts should fully consider the impact of climate change. The MaxEnt model offers a novel approach for investigating the sustainable areas of ski resorts, bearing significance in promoting the sustainable development of ski industry and regional economic development.