Predicting Future Laboratory Fault Friction Through Deep Learning Transformer Models

Abstract

AbstractMachine learning models using seismic emissions as input can predict instantaneous fault characteristics such as displacement and friction in laboratory experiments, and slow slip in Earth. Here, we address whether the seismic/acoustic emission (AE) from laboratory experiments contains information about future frictional behavior. The approach uses a convolutional encoder‐decoder containing a transformer model in the latent space, similar to models used for natural language processing. We test the model limits using progressively larger AE input time windows and progressively larger output friction time windows. The results demonstrate that very near‐term friction predictions are indeed contained in the AE signal, and predictions are progressively worse farther into the future. The future predictions by the model of impending failure in the near‐term are remarkably robust. This first effort predicting future fault frictional behavior with machine learning will aid in guiding efforts for applications in Earth.