Predicting future diameter distributions given current stand attributes

Abstract

This study discussed four methods to project a diameter distribution from age A1 to age A2. Method 1 recovers parameters of the distribution at age A2 from stand attributes at that age. Method 2 uses a stand-level model to grow the quadratic mean diameter, and then recovers the distribution parameters from that prediction. Method 3 grows the diameter distribution by assuming tree-level survival and diameter growth functions. Method 4 first converts the diameter distribution at age A1 into a list of individual trees before growing these trees to age A2. In a numerical example employing the Weibull distribution, methods 3 and 4 produced better results based on two types of error indices and the relative predictive error for each diameter class. Method 4 is a novel method that converts a diameter distribution into a list of individual trees, and in the process, successfully links together diameter-distribution, individual-tree, and whole-stand models.