Abstract

Predicting future Brent oil price on global markets

Highlights

  • International oil prices affect the development of many areas of the world economy, where most predictions of macroeconomic variables depend on the changes in oil prices

  • To achieve the objective of the paper, two research questions were formulated: whether the created specific neural network is a suitable tool to smooth the time series of Brent oil prices, i.e., a suitable tool to predict the future development of the price of this commodity, and what development of oil price can be expected with regard to the current situation in global markets

  • Considering the conclusion of the research carried out, the following research questions may be formulated: RQ1: Is a neural network based on Long Short Term Memory Layer a suitable tool for smoothing the time series of Brent oil price, and a suitable tool for predicting the future development of this commodity price? RQ2: What development of oil price can be expected in view of the global markets' current situation? The data for analysis is available from Investing.com (2020)

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Summary

Introduction

Oil or crude oil can be considered natural liquid fossil fuel found in geological formations beneath the Earth's surface. As the most important and indispensable resource, oil has an irreplaceable and important role in the whole economic society. It plays an essential role in the international market. This important material is used for many chemical industrial products, including pesticides, fertilizers, solvents, etc. Due to the fact it is a non-renewable resource as well as its many derivatives, such as plastics and petrol, oil is an important strategic resource for many countries. As a basic energy product, oil accounts for about 40% of the global energy consumption

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