Predicting fire hazard areas using vegetation indexes, Case Study: Forests of Golestan province, Iran

Abstract

Every year, hundreds of fires occur in the forests and rangelands across the world and damage thousands hectare of trees, shrubs, and plants which cause environmental and economic damages. This study aims to establish a real time forest fire alert system for better forest management and monitoring in Golestan province. In this study, in order to prepare fire hazard maps, the required layers were produced based on fire data in Golestan forests and MODIS sensor data. At first, the natural fire data was divided into two categories of training and test samples randomly. Then, the vegetation moisture stresses and greenness were considered using six indexes of NDVI, MSI, WDVI, OSAVI, GVMI and NDWI in natural fire area of training category on the day before fire occurrence and a long period of 15 years, and the risk threshold of the parameters was considered in addition to selecting the best spectral index of vegetation. Finally, the model output was validated for fire occurrences of the test category. The results showed the possibility of prediction of fire site before occurrence of fire with more than 80 percent accuracy.