Abstract
The purposes of this study were to (i) develop a field-goal shooting performance analysis template and (ii) explore the impact of each identified variable upon the likely outcome of a field-goal attempt using binary logistic regression modelling in elite men’s wheelchair basketball. First, a field-goal shooting performance analysis template was developed that included 71 Action Variables (AV) grouped within 22 Categorical Predictor Variables (CPV) representing offensive, defensive and game context variables. Second, footage of all 5,105 field-goal attempts from 12 teams during the men’s 2016 Rio De Janeiro Paralympic Games wheelchair basketball competition were analysed using the template. Pearson’s chi-square analyses found that 18 of the CPV were significantly associated with field-goal attempt outcome (p < 0.05), with seven of them reaching moderate association (Cramer’s V: 0.1–0.3). Third, using 70% of the dataset (3,574 field-goal attempts), binary logistic regression analyses identified that five offensive variables (classification category of the player, the action leading up to the field-goal attempt, the time left on the clock, the location of the shot, and the movement of the player), two defensive variables (the pressure being exerted by the defence, and the number of defenders within a 1-meter radius) and 1 context variable (the finishing position of the team in the competition) affected the probability of a successful field-goal attempt. The quality of the developed model was determined acceptable (greater than 65%), producing an area under the curve value of 68.5% when the model was run against the remaining 30% of the dataset (1,531 field-goal attempts). The development of the model from such a large sample of objective data is unique. As such it offers robust empirical evidence to enable coaches, performance analysts and players to move beyond anecdote, in order to appreciate the potential effect of various and varying offensive, defensive and contextual variables on field-goal success.
Highlights
Previous shooting research in wheelchair basketball has focused mainly on free-throw shooting [1,2,3,4], due we would argue, to the greater consistency and accuracy of variables to be measured in the ‘controlled’ setting enabling the use of statistical analyses requiring repeated measures assumptions to be met, and with fewer extraneous factors to consider, rather than because of its importance within a game
Field-goal attempts equate to the largest number of shot attempts during elite wheelchair basketball games with an average of between 57 and 64 per game from data obtained from the 2008 Paralympics in Beijing (China), the 2010 World Wheelchair Basketball Championships in Birmingham (UK), the 2015 European Wheelchair Basketball Championships in Worcester (UK) and the 2016 Paralympics in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) compared to an average of between only 11 and 16 free throw attempts per game [5,6,7,8]
This model has been widely used in the sports performance analysis research literature, and whilst this assumes independence between successive field-goals attempts within a match, we consider this to be reasonable due to the wide varying nature of each attempt described by 22 Categorical Predictor Variables (CPV)
Summary
Previous shooting research in wheelchair basketball has focused mainly on free-throw shooting [1,2,3,4], due we would argue, to the greater consistency and accuracy of variables to be measured in the ‘controlled’ setting enabling the use of statistical analyses requiring repeated measures assumptions to be met, and with fewer extraneous factors to consider, rather than because of its importance within a game. Field-goal shooting has been highlighted as one of the fundamental technical skills required by elite wheelchair basketball players [9,10] and Francis et al [11] recently emphasised the importance of the offensive player taking less pressurised shooting opportunities to increase their shooting efficiencies. Such studies provide an initial overview of tactical considerations when field-goal shooting in wheelchair basketball, more specific knowledge is required to identify the key determinants of field-goal shooting success to advance coaching and game training practise. The influence of the defence on the quality of the shot outcome was not considered
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