Predicting falls among Egyptian nursing home residents: A 1-year longitudinal study

Abstract

Background/PurposeFalls and their related complications are serious health problems among the institutionalized older population. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of falls and the risk factors among nursing home residents in Cairo, Egypt. MethodsA one-year prospective cohort study was done in three nursing homes in Cairo. Overall, 84 residents aged over 60 years participated in this study. Baseline demographic characteristics and results of comprehensive geriatric assessments, e.g. cognition, depression, functional and nutritional status, previous falls, fear of falling, assistive device use, and assessment by the timed up-and-go test (TUG) test were collected. All falling accidents were recorded by the nursing home staff during the study period. ResultsDuring the study period, 163 incident falls (1940 falls/ 1000 resident-years) were identified in 53 fallers (631 fallers/1000 resident-years) were recorded. On average, fallers may fall twice a year (mean±SD 2.0±2.1 episodes, range 1–6). Compared to nonfallers, fallers were older, more likely to have hadprevious falls, fear of falling, frailty, impaired instrumental activities of daily living, poor cognitive status, malnutrition or its risk, assistive device use, and slower TUG. The most sensitive (86.8%) and specific (90.3%) predictor for falls in this study was TUG >14 seconds. ConclusionSixty-three percent of Egyptian nursing home residents may fall during one year follow-up with the incidence of 1019 falls/1000 resident-years. The most important predictive factor for falls in this study was the TUG >14 seconds.