Predicting Factors of Worse Prognosis in COVID-19: Results from a Cross-sectional Study on 52 Inpatients Admitted to the Internal Medicine Department.

Abstract

The initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic posed a real need for clinicians to identify patients at risk of poor prognosis as soon as possible after hospital admission. The study aimed to assess the role of baseline anamnestic information, clinical parameters, instrumental examination, and serum biomarkers in predicting adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in a hospital setting of Internal Medicine. Fifty-two inpatients consecutively admitted to the Unit of Internal Medicine "Baccelli," Azienda Ospedaliero - Universitaria Policlinico of Bari (February 1 - May 31, 2021) due to confirmed COVID-19 were grouped into two categories based on the specific outcome: good prognosis (n=44), patients discharged at home after the acute phase of the infection; poor prognosis, a composite outcome of deaths and intensive care requirements (n=8). Data were extracted from medical records of patients who provided written informed consent to participate. The two study groups had similar demographic, anthropometric, clinical, and radiological characteristics. Higher interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels and leucocyte count, and lower free triiodothyronine (fT3) levels were found in patients with poor than those with good prognosis. Higher IL-6 levels and leucocyte count, lower fT3 concentration, and pre-existing hypercholesterolemia were independent risk factors of poor outcomes in our study population. A predicting risk score, built by assigning one point if fT3 < 2 pg/mL, IL-6 >25 pg/mL, and leucocyte count >7,000 n/mm3, revealed that patients totalizing at least 2 points by applying the predicting score had a considerably higher risk of poor prognosis than those with scoring <2 points [OR 24.35 (1.32; 448), p = 0.03]. The weight of pre-existing hypercholesterolemia did not change the risk estimation. Four specific baseline variables, one anamnestic (pre-existing hypercholesterolemia) and three laboratory parameters (leucocyte count, IL-6, and fT3), were significantly associated with poor prognosis as independent risk factors. To prevent adverse outcomes, the updated 4-point score could be useful in identifying at-risk patients, highlighting the need for specific trials to estimate the safety and efficacy of targeted treatments.