Predicting escalation in sexually violent recidivism: Use of the SVR-20 and PCL: SV to predict outcome with non-contact recidivists and contact recidivists

Abstract

Forty convicted male sex offenders were classified as non-contact or contact sex offence recidivists. Non-contact recidivists had a history of non-contact sex offending on two or more occasions. Contact recidivists had a history of non-contact sex offending and recidivated with a contact sex offence. Groups were compared on the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL: SV). Psychosexual variables, criminal history and clinical risk factors were also coded using a multi-variable assessment model. A retrospective-prospective comparison was performed between non-contact and contact recidivist groups. Significant differences between non-contact recidivists and contact recidivists were observed on a number of risk factors. Suggested revisions to the SVR-20 are reported. The research demonstrates that a progressive pattern of sex offending from non-contact sex offending to contact sex offending is reliably associated with a combination of risk factors. This study offers the potential for early detection of escalation in the severity of sex offending.