Predicting effectiveness of the V114 vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease in children

Abstract

ABSTRACT Background The potential impact of new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) is assessed by using immune responses to predict their effectiveness against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). This analysis predicted the serotype-specific effectiveness against IPD of a new 15-valent PCV (V114) for the serotypes shared with a 13-valent PCV (PCV13), in a US pediatric population given a 3 + 1 dosing regimen. Methods Beginning with the known serotype-specific antibody concentrations after vaccination with placebo, 7-valent PCV (PCV7) and PCV13, reverse cumulative distribution curves were used, along with published serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness of PCV7 and PCV13, to derive a protective antibody concentration (Cp) for each PCV13 serotype in V114. Serotype-specific effectiveness was predicted using the Cp estimates and the respective serotype-specific antibody concentrations of placebo and V114 recipients in recent pediatric clinical trials. Results Predicted serotype-specific V114 effectiveness values ranged from 86% to 99% for PCV7 serotypes and from 59% to 97% for (non-PCV7) PCV13 serotypes. Conclusions V114 serotype-specific effectiveness against IPD in a US pediatric population was predicted to be largely comparable to that of PCV7 and PCV13 for shared serotypes, with models suggesting likelihood of high overall benefit gained from increased serotype 3 effectiveness, and additional protection against serotypes 22 F and 33 F.