Predicting Dwell Time by Bus Stop Type and Time of the Day

Stephen A Arhin,Errol C Noel

doi:10.4172/2165-784x.1000189

Abstract

Bus dwell time (DT), which is defined as the time interval between the opening and closing its doors to serve passengers at the bus stop, is an important element in improving the travel time between end terminals of bus routes. DT on bus routes in dense urban areas varies by time of day. Also, DT could be measured or estimated using mathematical models. This study aimed at developing innovative DT models for bus stops located in dense urban areas taking in consideration the bus stop type (located near intersections and at mid-blocks), and by time of the day (morning, mid-day and evening). The models were developed using simple ordinary least squares methods with all statistical inferences at 95% confidence interval. The results of the data analysis showed that DT, on average, was higher at bus stops near intersections than those at mid-blocks. The models obtained for DT were determined to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level, based on the R2, F-Statistic and model validation tests. The Kolmogorov-Smirnoff, normal probability and residual plots were used to confirm the adequacy of the models. The analysis also revealed that the models were significantly different by time of day and by bus stop type. It should also be noted that the models were based on bus transit operation in a dense urban area and may not be appropriate for predicting DT in non-similar settings.

Highlights

Several variables such as traffic congestion, weather condition, dwell time and number of passengers boarding or alighting directly affect the efficiency of a transit bus system along its route
Since dwell time (DT) is a critical factor in reliability assessments, it is essential to predict its value along bus transit corridors
This research was aimed at developing DT models that take in consideration time of the day and bus stop types; mid-block and near intersections

Summary

Introduction

Several variables such as traffic congestion, weather condition, dwell time and number of passengers boarding or alighting directly affect the efficiency of a transit bus system along its route. The DT at bus stops represents a significant portion of route operating time, and its variability is linked to the reliability of the service being provided. WMATA provides bus transit system users with timely information regarding bus arrivals and travel times online. Some studies [2] developed DT models which are thought to be monolithic and as a result, only one model is typically used in transit reliability decision-making processes. Such studies did not take in consideration factors such as time of the day and bus stop type into consideration. This research aimed at developing DT models using field data for WMATA’s bus stops along heavily travelled corridors in the District of Columbia by time of the day and bus stop type

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion