Predicting Drug Approvals: The Novartis Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Challenge

Abstract

We describe a novel collaboration between academia and industry, an in-house data science and artificial intelligence challenge held by Novartis to develop machine learning models for predicting drug development outcomes, building upon research at MIT using data from Informa® as the starting point. Over 50 cross-functional teams from 25 Novartis offices around the world participated in the challenge. The domain expertise of these Novartis researchers was leveraged to create predictive models with greater sophistication, two teams developed models that outperformed the baseline MIT model through state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms and the use of newly incorporated features and data. In addition to validating the variables shown to be associated with drug approval in the earlier MIT study, the challenge also provided new insights into the drivers of drug development success and failure.