Predicting Detached Housing Vacancy: A Multilevel Analysis

Jaekyung Lee,Galen Newman,Changyeon Lee

doi:10.3390/su14020922

Jaekyung Lee, Galen Newman + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020922

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Abstract

Urban shrinkage is a critical issue in local small- and medium-sized cities in Korea. While there have been several studies to analyze the causes and consequences of vacancy increases, most have only focused on socioeconomic associations at larger scale and failed to consider individual housing level characteristics, primarily due to a lack of appropriate data. Based on data including 52,400 individual parcels, this study analyzes the primary contributors to vacant properties and their spatial distribution through a multilevel model design based on data for each parcel. Then, we identify areas at high risk of vacancy in the future to provide evidence to establish policies for improving the local environment. Results indicate that construction year, building structure, and road access conditions have a significant effect on vacant properties at the individual parcel level, and the presence of schools and hypermarket within 500 m are found to decrease vacant properties. Further, prediction outcomes show that the aged city center and areas with strict regulations on land use are expected to have a higher vacancy rate. These findings are used to provide a set of data-based revitalization strategies through the development of a vacancy prediction model.

Highlights

Sustainability 2022, 14, 922. https://Recent rapid urban growth has forced Korean cities to focus on physical and spatial expansion [1]
The primary objectives of this research are twofold: (1) to accurately analyze contributors to vacant properties and spatial distribution through a multilevel model design based on data for individual parcels, and (2) to provide evidence to establish policies to boost the local area by predicting areas at risk of vacancy
To determine whether a multilevel model is suitable for conducting the multilevel logistic regression model, we identified whether local characteristics contributed to an increase or decrease in vacancies between Dongs

Summary

Introduction

Sustainability 2022, 14, 922. https://Recent rapid urban growth has forced Korean cities to focus on physical and spatial expansion [1]. As such, planning policies related to growth management or smart growth are being developed with sustainability and development in mind [2]. A large number of development projects have been put forth in response to the growing demand for housing in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) of South Korea, such as the ambitious. Many small- and medium-sized cities and rural areas outside of the SMA are experiencing depopulation that first began in the 1980s. Of 230 Korean cities, 139 (60.4%) experienced depopulation between 1990 and 2015. While only 18.6% (20) of cities in the SMA lost population during this period, non-metropolitan areas showed a 30.1% (119) decline, indicating urban shrinkage in these regions [3]

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