Abstract
BackgroundDengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana.Methodology/Principal FindingsLagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical epidemic year and to define the best indices for predicting dengue fever outbreaks during the period 1991–2013. A logistic regression was then performed to build a forecast model. We demonstrate that a model based on summer Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and Azores High sea-level pressure had predictive value and was able to predict 80% of the outbreaks while incorrectly predicting only 15% of the non-epidemic years. Predictions for 2014–2015 were consistent with the observed non-epidemic conditions, and an outbreak in early 2016 was predicted.Conclusions/SignificanceThese findings indicate that outbreak resurgence can be modeled using a simple combination of climate indicators. This might be useful for anticipating public health actions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and medical infrastructures are generally insufficient.
Highlights
Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world [1,2]
Based on the a priori hypothesis put forward in Gagnon et al [37], the current study explores the potential of integrating sea surface temperature (SST) conditions to serve as a proxy for epidemic risk several months before the onset of a DF outbreak
DF case peaks generally occurred in March, and the anomalies decreased until May
Summary
Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world [1,2]. Recent estimates indicate that there are 390 million dengue infections per year, of which 96 million manifest as disease [3]. There are no specific dengue therapeutics, and prevention strategies are limited to vector control measures [5]. The recent development of the first dengue vaccine represents a major advance in our ability to control the disease [6,7,8]. Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses.
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