Predicting daily total ozone over Kolkata, India: skill assessment of different neural network models

Abstract

AbstractThis paper explores the observation made by the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP/TOMS) to analyse the predictability of daily total ozone concentration over Kolkata, India. Latitude, longitude, aerosol index, reflectivity, sulphur dioxide index and total ozone concentration of a given day have been used as independent variables to predict total ozone concentration of the next day. Artificial neural network in the forms of a multilayer perceptron, generalized feed forward neural network, a radial basis function network and a modular neural network have been trained to generate predictive models. Performances of the models in the test cases have been judged with the help of four statistical parameters. Finally the models have been compared with multiple linear regression and the potential of generalized feed forward neural network has been established over the other proposed models. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society