Abstract
Simple SummaryPomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, causing significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. In this study, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China and found that with climate change, there would be a trend of expanding and moving northward in the future.Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, which has significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. Climate change is one of the major causes of species range shifts. With recent climate change, the distribution of P. canaliculata has shifted northward. Understanding the potential distribution under current and future climate conditions will aid in the management of the risk of its invasion and spread. Here, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China, and the jackknife test was used to assess the importance of environmental variables for modeling. Our study found that precipitation of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature in the coldest months played important roles in the distribution of P. canaliculata. With global warming, there will be a trend of expansion and northward movement in the future. This study could provide recommendations for the management and prevention of snail invasion and expansion.
Highlights
IntroductionHeightened connectivity between countries brought about by globalization’s facilitation has contributed to tremendous economic and social development through global trade, international travel/tourism, etc
The invasion of P. canaliculata severely harmed the biodiversity in China, altered the spatial distribution of native species, caused direct harm to the production of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and resulted in massive economic losses [3]
The current climate was represented by historical climate data from 1970 to 2000, and future environmental variables corresponding to the recent were divided into four periods with a 20–year interval from 2021 to 2100 to predict the future potential distribution of P. canaliculata under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): 126, 245, 370, and 585
Summary
Heightened connectivity between countries brought about by globalization’s facilitation has contributed to tremendous economic and social development through global trade, international travel/tourism, etc. Resulted in the introduction of numerous invasive alien species, posing significant threats to native species, the ecological environment, human health, and the social economy [1]. Pomacea canaliculata (Gastropoda: Ampullariidae), commonly called the apple snail, a freshwater snail native to tropical and temperate South America, was listed by the International Union of Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in the “100 of the world’s worst invasive alien species” [2], as well as among the first batch of invasive alien species in. The invasion of P. canaliculata severely harmed the biodiversity in China, altered the spatial distribution of native species, caused direct harm to the production of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and resulted in massive economic losses [3]. The species can lead to disease spread and pose serious threats as pathogen vectors to
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